2022/11/22 (116) Technical Analysis – XETR-EOAN & CBOT_MINI-YM1!

Dow Jones At Highest Level Since Mid-August 2022
– We Stay Long With New Old Stop Price From Last Week


Don`t Forget The New Stop Price Of Our CBOT_MINI-YM1! Long 4XSetUp Trading Capability Of Last Week,
– And That On The Intraday High Trading Day As US Inflation Data Of September 2022 Came Out In October 2022

Because while in October 2022 the us inflation data for September 2022 were higher than expected, the data for October 2022, in November 2022, were lower than expected. So that we can also raise the target price a bit. Because we can now calculate that the Fed will not hike your interest rate by another 75 basis points in December 2022. And that US inflation is falling more towards 7 percent – instead of back over 8 percent. However, I keep my distance from the NASDAQ because it is simply too technology-heavy. Because I would prefer the DOW JONES without APPL and/or MSFT! Who would have thought, I certainly wouldn’t, that I’d write this one day? But then only in relation to the current share valuation of both companies – whose products I still like to consume. But tech stocks are simply too expensive in the historical context, relative to other sectors, in this current economic and political environment! Or? That`s why i am focussing us on 4XSetUps in the CBOT_MINI-YM1! since the 2nd half of this year 2002 – after we made an huge profits with our short 4XSetUps trading capability in the NDX…

H on 2022/10/13 was 32789 points
O on 2022/10/13 was 32540 points
C on 2022/10/13 was 31212 points
L on 2022/10/13 was 31129 points
All dow jones stocknarket bulls now have to defend this loss-making trading day in the CBOT_MINI-YM1! in the short term in order to be able to continue to rise in the medium term. 34246 points are the first target and/or also 35413 points – until the first quarter of 2023. In this context, I am positive that we just broke out of this battle zone to the top last Thursday. And that on the trading day when the US inflation figures were published. That`s why I have just decided to raise the price target a bit – and or above all (and then also first) to tighten our stop price. Because I get cold feet when I think about the past – because we’ve already climbed so high and so fast. But my heart also warms when I imagine that the US inflation numbers for November 2022, which will be released in December 2022, will be lower again. And then shortly before the next scheduled FED meeting. On that day interest rates will hopefully only be raised by 50 basis points. This is the aim of this 4XSetUp. And or to put it in the words of my literary doyen George Soros: „Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values. One provides a static picture, the other a dynamic one.“

US 5th District Factory Index Remains Subdued And/Or Disney Pushes Dow Up

The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district edged higher to -9 in November of 2022 from -10 in October which was the lowest reading since May of 2020, but continued to point to softening conditions for manufacturing firms. Shipments (-8 vs -3) and employment (-1 vs 0) deteriorated slightly while new orders showed some improvement (-14 vs -22). Also, the wage index decreased notably (25 vs 34) and the local business conditions index rose to -6 from -16, with considerably fewer firms pessimistic about conditions over the next six months. Despite dramatic improvements throughout this year, supply chain issues appeared to persist for some firms, as the indexes for vendor lead time (-10 vs -15) and backlog of orders (-25 vs -28) increased slightly. Finally, prices paid (10.19 vs 12.81) decreased while prices received (9.91 vs 8.62) increased.

The Dow Jones added nearly 100 points to start a shortened holiday week, pushed by an 8% surge in Disney shares after the company announced that Bob Iger will return as CEO. On the other hand, the S&P 500 traded around the flatline while the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.3%, amid a drop in risk appetite on concerns of further curbs in China after the country reported covid deaths for the first time in six months during the weekend. Meanwhile, traders remain cautious ahead of the FOMC minutes release on Wednesday which could provide further clues on the pace of the Fed’s rate hikes.

Dollar Eases As Fed Outlook Mulled

The dollar index fell to around 107.5 on Tuesday, giving back some gains from the previous session as investors cautiously awaited the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes that could guide the outlook for US rates. Traders also parsed through various remarks from Fed officials who have largely maintained astrong commitment to bring down inflation. In the latest commentary, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned against overtightening, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she wants to see inflation come down sustainably before supporting a pause. On Monday, the dollar index jumped nearly 1% as a worsening Covid situation in China spurred safe-haven demand for the currency. The greenback slipped across the board, with the most pronounced selling versus the kiwi ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision.

US Stocks Rise After Quiet Session

The Dow added nearly 400 points on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose roughly 1.4% each as investors digested a slew of corporate results and Fed speeches. Best Buy jumped over 12% after it hiked its 2023 financial outlook and beat earnings forecasts. Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters also enjoyed some respite after reporting results that topped Wall Street expectations. Conversely, Zoom Video Communications tumbled almost 4% after the company lowered its yearly revenue forecast, with shares now down about 90%.