2022/11/15 (111) Technical Analysis – XETR-DBK & CBOT

WallStreet Rally Continues To Falter On Tuesday
– Nevertheless We`re Big In The Plus With Our Long 4XSetUp.

Excuse me if I sometimes repeat myself with my words in the D2D Editions. But sometimes I simply feel like an NFL head coach who is trying to teach his team – even my readers (yes, even you, excactly you my dear reader) – something that, at least for me, is clearly detailed and easy to understand. According to George Soros and his theory of reflection. Which he describes in the following own words: “Essentially, it has to do with the role of the thinking participant, and the relationship between his thinking and the events in which he participates. I believe that a thinking participant is in a very difficult position, because he is trying to understand a situation in which he is one of the actors. Traditionally, we think of understanding as essentially a passive role, and participating is an active role. In truth, the two roles interfere with each other, which makes it impossible for the participant to base any decisions on pure or perfect knowledge. Classical economic theory assumes that market participants act on the basis of perfect knowledge. That assumption is false. The participants’ perceptions influence the market in which they participate, but the market action also influences the participants’ perceptions. They cannot obtain perfect knowledge of the market because their thinking is always affecting the market and the market is affecting their thinking. This makes analysis of market behavior much harder than it would be if the assumption of perfect knowledge were valid.”

And in exactly such a scenario we are currently in the CBOT_MINI-YM1!, if I’m not mistaken!?
Most of my US Republicans have been talking about an impending political red wave all year. And what came out? If we’re lucky conservative liberals have something more than an ebb. A political disaster! Instead of getting puffed up about the US Democrats, foreign countries, especially China, in the media, you would have made your voters better offers that you could then have delivered. Just like back then under Trump. But he now seems to have less and less credit, not only from US Democrats, due to his reaction after the 2020 election defeat. But let’s turn to last week’s US inflation data, which turned out better than last expected. What could be confirmed in December? At least that is my current calculation, in relation to our ling 4XSetUps trading capability in the CBOT. Because rays of light seem to be making themselves felt in the tunnel of the future – even if many argue against this for tactical economic reasons. No, the success of Sleepy Joe, Joe Biden, cannot be overestimated – except with a desolate selection of US Republican candidates. The Americans don’t seem to like Joe Biden as US President very much! But Donald Trump? No, dear Sleepy Joe then. Or, my dear loyal readers?! But back to the financial market price action! Better thanexpected US inflation data last week, a falling US dollar, a slightly cheaper US yield curve, and or above all the G20 together at the summit in Bali, extremely united against Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. While Ukraine continues to receive almost every military support to defend its sovereign independence – even against the will of the Russian Kremlin. What is left for all peaceful heads of state at the moment other than Ukraine, as far as it is possible for each individual head of state, depending on the national starting point, than to support Ukraine militarily, at the same time to make themselves independent of the Russian trading partner, and both warring parties (that is, both the Ukraine as well as Russia) to organize political economic bilateral negotiations at one table? I don’t know any better either.

But let us come back to a literary doyen George Soros, who rounds off his theory of reflection with the following words. “In economics, contingent, time- and context-bound theories may yield more useful explanations and predictions than timeless and universal generalizations based on ungrounded assumptions. Second, since our understanding of reality is imperfect, the criterion by which choices may be judged is not fully within our grasp. As a result, people will not necessarily make the correct choice and, even if they do, not everybody will accept it as such. Moreover, the correct choice represents merely the better of the available alternatives, not the best of all possible solutions. New ideas and interpretations may emerge at any time. These are also bound to be flawed and may have to be discarded when the flaws become apparent. There is no final answer, only the possibility of a gradual approximation to it. It follows that the choice between alternatives involves a continuous process of critical examination rather than the mechanical application of fixed rules.”

New Stop Price Of Our CBOT_MINI-YM1! Long 4XSetUp Trading Capability, On Intraday High Trading Day Of US Inflation Data Last Month Before

Because while in October 2022 the us inflation data for September 2022 were higher than expected, the data for October 2022, in November 2022, were lower than expected. So that we can also raise the target price a bit. Because we can now calculate that the Fed will not hike your interest rate by another 75 basis points in December 2022. And that US inflation is falling more towards 7 percent – instead of back over 8 percent. However, I keep my distance from the NASDAQ because it is simply too technology-heavy. Because I would prefer the DOW JONES without APPL and/or MSFT! Who would have thought, I certainly wouldn’t, thatI’d write this one day? But then only in relation to the current share valuation of both companies – whose products I still like to consume. But tech stocks are simply too expensive in the historical context, relative to other sectors, in this current economic and political environment! Or?

US Stocks Finish Up After Choppy Session

Wall Street failed to hold its initial upside momentum on Tuesday, with the Dow erasing a 400-point gain and finishing just above the flatline, as investors reassessed the outlook for growth and monetary policy. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic warned that he sees little evidence that inflation is easing while signaling that interest rates will have to rise further for the central bank to reach its goals. This hawkish view from Raphael Bostic contrasts sharply with remarks from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker that hinted at a less aggressive tightening. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also pared gains but outperformed by adding 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively, as a weaker dollar and softening Treasury yields drove high-growth higher.