2022/11/01 (101) Technical Analysis – XETR-1COV & CBOT

As Titled Last Week
Let It Go, As Long It Is Still Good…
That`s Why We Remain Neutral This Week Again!

Investors Cautious And/Or Much More Nervous Ahead Of Interest Rate Decision

Ahead of the Fed interest rate decision, nervousness is rising on the US stock market. On Tuesday, the US stock exchanges quickly turned negative after robust data from US industry and the labor market. Concerns increased again that the US Federal Reserve could continue its tough monetary policy course with large interest rate hikes, after there had recently been hopes that the pace of increases would be less rapid. After the unusually strong October with a price gain of almost 14 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.24 percent to 32,653.20 points at the close on Tuesday. The market-wide S&P 500 fell by 0.41 percent to 3856.10 points. In view of the renewed fear of interest rates, the Nasdaq 100, which is predominantly stocked with technology stocks, slipped even more than the standard values with minus 1.02 percent to 11,288.95 points. Heavyweights like Apple and Microsoft lost 1.8 and 1.7 percent respectively, and Alphabet over four percent. Amazon was down five and a half percent, taking the online retailer’s stock market value back below the $1 trillion mark.

The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Market participants are firmly anticipating another sharp rise in interest rates of 0.75 percentage points to combat high inflation. However, investors will pay particular attention to the statements made by the currency watchdogs on the future course of monetary policy, with the question being whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates quickly and significantly in the future or – to the delight of equity investors – rather slow down a bit.

Rumors of China’s gradual exit from the zero-Covid policy initially gave the indices a boost at the start of trading on Tuesday and ensured a friendly start to November. Shares in technology companies had previously risen on the stock exchanges in China and Hong Kong. In New York, this had a positive effect on depositary receipts (ADRs) from Chinese companies such as those of the Internet trading groups Alibaba and JD.com and the search engine operator Baidu, which rose by more than three and a half percent in some cases. Uber jumped 12 percent. Shares of the US ride-hailing service provider benefited from stronger-than-expected quarterly sales. The company also reduced its loss. In the wake of Uber, the title of the competitor Lyft gained 3.5 percent. The shares of pharmaceutical manufacturers Pfizer and Eli Lilly headed in different directions. Despite the strong US dollar, Pfizer had raised its annual targets for the figures, which gave the shares a plus of 3.1 percent. Eli Lilly, on the other hand, cut both the sales and profit targets for the current year in view of the strength of the dollar, and the shares lost 2.6 percent. The focus was also on the pharmaceutical and consumer goods group Johnson & Johnson (J&J) with a takeover project.The Fight For 30,000 Points In Rhe Dow Jones Stock Market, The Holding Of The 110 Points In The USD Index,
And Or The Meanwhile 4% In The 10year US Yields – That’s Seems What Determines The Price Action At The Moment! Or?

As I put it last week, in the 4 SetUps Technical Analysis, in the headline “I`m Not Superstitious But I Truly Believe In It: Let It Go, As Long It Is Still Good, As Long, As It Is… That`s Why We Remain Neutral On The Long Side This Week As Well!” And the current development also proves us right at the moment, with our neutral attitude. Even if it is admittedly highly speculative – and in the worst case, when we switch from the bull camp to the bear camp, and/or from the bear camp to the bull camp, in retrospect we only find ourselves with too many loss-making transactions!? But which strategy & tactic is perfect?! Therefore, we remain disciplined – and think, from day to day, from week to week, maximum, in these highly volatile times, as far as pice action is concerned.

It goes back and forth in the US stock market.
The numbers are not great – and in the historical context, there are no reasons to enter the stock market in the medium term, let alone in the long term!
However, as short-term speculative trader, as like in our 4XSetUps Trading Capability very much so, it`s a great trading market! Because in the last few weeks and months, apart from during the lockdown, due to the corona virus outbreak, has the mood regarding US Wall Street been worse? I don’t think so – but it’s not about the sentiment in New York, but rather about the emotional bullish/bearish reaction of the market participants, i.e. all of us who deal (in)directly with WallStreet. And our future expectations. And that all in an economic environment of the highest stagflation since the end of the Cold War, they are as bad as they have been for 40 years (the 1980s, to be precise). That´s why stay cautious about the US stock market! And only get in and out with a concrete competente long tactic, concrete competente short tactic, and/or concrete competente short/long tactic – in these historically very volatile price action times…

We remain neutral, even if it reads boringly! But what should I write to you!? Anything incompetent that I’m not convinced of just so you can go long or short an exchange rate pair, commodity, stock market, or even an individual stock? No! There are enough other newsletters and brokers who also formulate numerous buy or sell recommendations for you free of charge, just so that you can trade. Without denouncing this to colleagues, I still think that a neutral stance should pay off the most this week as well. And that we shouldn’t lose all of our accumulated profits, to put it mildly, by next weekend. So that the DOW Future does not fall back down to more or less 30,500 points. And that’s at least something, in these crazy, incredibly volatile times on the stock market! Or?US Stocks Whipsaw to the Downside

Wall Street failed to hold its initial upside momentum on Tuesday, as the Dow erased an almost 300-point gain and crossed into negative territory, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively. Investors reacted to a slew of economic releases, including better-than-expected ISM PMI and JOLTs Job Openings figures, which showed that the economy remained far from the Federal Reserve’s goals. All eyes now turn to the Fed monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 75 bps interest rate hike and hoping that Chair Jerome Powell will hint at a relaxation of monetary tightening. On the corporate side, Uber skyrocketed more than 12% after beating Wall Street revenue estimates while offering strong guidance.