2022/10/30 (099) Technical Analysis

The USD Stabiluzes At The Excepted High Levels!
Was It That With The USD Rally? Is The Focus Now On The GBP?
I Don`t Know – But I Know That No One Has Ever Died From Taking Profits…

This is the headline that got me thinking as far as the USD is concerned – in the last weeks, last days, and/or even last hours, also!
Because it almost seems as if what is happening in London right now – politically, with the conservative party and even their fiscal policy, let alone the monetary policy of the Bank of England – the focus is shifting of all of us financial market participants from the USD to the GBP! isn`t it? Because let’s not kid ourselves! Who would have ever thought that we would be able to trade (buy/sell) the GBP so cheaply against the USD? In the summer of 2006, when I first seriously dealt with the foreign exchange market, and at that time also for the first time formulated isolated voluntary analyses, for some CFD online brokers, we all asked ourselves, can we break the 2.50 GBPUSD!? Some even dreamed of the 3.00 GBPUSD back then?! Me too, admittedly…

However, back to today! The GBPUSD’s fall, while bold and swift, came as no surprise.
And comes just days after Britain’s newly appointed Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced the new government’s economic growth plan for 2022, which was set to include the country’s biggest tax cuts in more as 50 years. While the GBPUSD exchange rate has since end of September`22 recovered slightly from its decline, Kwarteng’s announcement fueled fears that England will soon face worsening inflation and accelerate into a recession. The last figures published prove him right – even if he is not in office in the meantime. Inflation is higher in the UK compared to the US, as much more economic growth is lower. That`s why I’ve been secretly asking myself for days – and also formulated it in the headline: “The USD Stabiluzes At The Excepted High Levels! What It That With The USD Rally? Is The Focus Now On The GBP? I Don`t Know – But I Know That No One Has Ever Died From Taking Profits…” And truly believe meanwhile, that for our successful long 4XSetUps trading capability in the DXY just at 110 points it would the best to see the stoplost price mark raised – at least to have secured our accumulated profits in the course of the year 2022 so far. I’m not assuming a big trend reversal in the USD Index, but we have to learn to think in historical contexts – as bulls and/or bears – and I think the best thing to do is to put the stop price at first at 110 points. Which gives us a whopping 14 points profit – even proudly 12.73%. And/Or the possible to buy USD cheaper in the short term in order to possibly earn even more money from the medium-term and long-term increase. And that`s why focus on the lower price ranges – still with the expectation that the USD can rise to up to 120 and more by the end of 2023.

In a statement from the Bank of England (BOE), bank Governor Andrew Bailey said that policymakers are prepared to further adjust interest rates in order to address the fall of the sterling. But the BOE’s next meeting is not scheduled until November 3 and Kwarteng isn’t slated to publish his medium-term fiscal plan until November 23. In the meantime, some economists are projecting that GBP could reach parity with the dollar—a major shift after decades of averaging around $1.50 USD. Whether or not that will happen depends on the U.K.’s fiscal policy response in the coming months.

US Stocks Finish Week Up Following Weak PCE Print And/Or US 10-Year Treasury Yield Rockets Above 4%

The Dow advanced more than 800 points on Friday, and the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq added over 2.5% each as investors digested a slew of economic data and earnings reports while reassessing their expectations for more rate increases from the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s favorite inflation rate, the PCE price index, showed that annual core inflation came slightly weaker than expected but still pointed to increasing inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, a Commerce Department report showed that consumer spending rose above expectations in September. On the corporate side, Apple jumped over 8% after the iPhone maker topped analysts’ estimates for revenue and profit. Conversely, Amazon.com shares tumbled almost 10% after forecasting holiday-quarter sales below Wall Street expectations. The Dow and S&P finished the week higher by roughly 5.6% and 4.0%, respectively, while the Nasdaq lagged, finishing only 2.0% higher.

The US 10-year Treasury note yield bounced back above the 4% mark as investors digested the latest GDP reading while reassessing the outlook for monetary policy. The first estimate of third-quarter GDP showed that the economy grew by 2.6%, above market expectations of 2.4%, and returning to growth after two consecutive quarters of decline. Still, the report showed that consumer and business spending faltered amid stubbornly high inflation and tighter financial conditions. On the policy side, Federal Reserve is still expected to increase its key rate by 75bps in November. However, speculation grows that policymakers are considering slowing down the pace of interest-rate hikes later this year amid intensifying macro headwinds. Meanwhile, a series of hot inflation in developed economies, notably Germany, France, and Italy, also rattled bond investors. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield, the European benchmark, rose above 2.1%.

The Fight For 30,000 Points In Rhe Dow Jones Stock Market, The Holding Of The 110 Points In The USD Index,
And Or The Meanwhile 4% In The 10year US Yields – That’s Seems What Determines The Price Action At The Moment! Or?

That´s why stay cautious about the stockmarket! And only get in with a concrete competente long tactic, short tactic, and/or concrete competente short/long tactic – in these historically very volatile price action times! Even like with our neutral long/short 4XSetUp trading capabiliy switch trade in the DOW Future…

Dollar Set for Second Straight Weekly Loss

The dollar index steadied around 110.8 on Friday but was still set to decline for the second straight week, pressured by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will turn less aggressive soon. The Fed is widely expected to deliver its fourth straight 75 basis point rate increase in November, though markets started to speculate that it would slow the pace of rate hikes after that amid concerns about overtightening. Meanwhile, the greenback jumped 0.8% on Thursday after data showed that the US economy expanded 2.6% YoY in the third quarter, exceeding forecasts for a 2.4% growth and rebounding from two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Elsewhere, investors reacted to the European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by another 75 basis points, while the Bank of Japan maintained its policy of ultra-low interest rates in a widely expected move.

However, it will be a very busy week in the US with Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, labor report, and earnings reports taking center stage. Also, investors will be closely watching central bank meetings in the United Kingdom, Australia, Norway, and Malaysia and GDP growth and inflation rate figures from Euro Area. Finally, China will be releasing manufacturing and services PMI’s for October.