2022/10/17 (090) Technical Analysis

The OPEC – The Most Inflience Broker Of The Oil Price – Has Put It`s Foot
Down And Excecuted It By Cutting Further Oil Demands Last Week Before!
Effects Were Still Felt This Week – Selling pressure has Blown Away For Now…

Oil Price Falls – China Still Restrictive

“In a speech opening the 20th Communist Party Congress on Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled there would be no change in direction in China’s strict Covid-zero policy, a strategy that has weighed on the Chinese economy in 2022 “Bloomberg reports. Many oil price bulls and/or commentators argue that the oil price is not traded significantly below USD 100 only because China is not a major import on the world market. So perhaps many take this fact as a bearish reason; and want to sell the oil price again for the time being?! Anyway!? I give the conflict of aggression by Russia on eastern Ukraine, and all its consequences, for the more important price driver, as far as the price of oil is concerned. After the green energy policy, our politicians, in our so-called West, who not only morally discredit the supply of energy resources, such as black oil, OPEC, for political reasons, but actually made it scarce for political reasons. And this price increase, which we consumers, who we all are, accepted with approval in order to put your left-wing, green, Christian-democratic energy policy into practice. What we perceive every day at every gas station! As a freedom-loving conservative, I almost feel compelled to write here: “Remember those good old days, directed by Donald Trump, in the White House?

Lockdowns will continue in China! So what? The demand from China is not greater than the demand from us Europeans, especially us Germans, and or even the Anglo-Saxons! Or? That’s why I don’t buy the argument like most of those who deal with the development of the price of the oil! And stick to our 4XSetUp short trading capability. However, with a stop price at 100 USD. Because of course I can be wrong too. Because if the market, the majority, of all those involved, should come to the conclusion that everything just formulated is a reason to trade (buy/sell) the oil price above USD 100 and even more, then I have, then ta us, my mistake, only cost 5 USD in the price of oil!

Bloomberg also wrote this weekend: “Key oil market indicators in Asia are pointing to weakness as traders monitor buying activity in China for clues on demand from the world’s largest crude oil importer. Sluggish growth in China has eased has been added to a number of factors unfavorable for oil prices, including aggressive central bank monetary policies to curb inflation, and the stronger US dollar.”

Global Recession Has Been The Motto On The Markets And In The Other Newspapers For Weeks

The recession is rolling – and that basically means less and less demand for oil due to cyclical reasons. Which is also what my 4XSetUps Trading Capability isVery Important Price Action Areas
For The Next Days, Weeks And/Or Months

$ 128.37 03/01/2012 false break-out high

$ 119.46 02/24/2011 upper resistance
sideway-trend-channel
from feb`11 to sep`14

$ 98.87 08/09/2011 lower support
sideway-trend-channel
from feb`11 to sep`14

$ 88.52 06/22/2012 false break-down low

I am afraid that we will be in this price action price zone as far as longer than I originally imagined! Because inflation, in our so-called West, doesn’t seem to get down – on the contrary! And UKOIL seems to want to stay up as well? However, stay cosequent in ths 4XSetUp. Don`t trade UKOIL without entry and/or exit price levels – even if they don`t match mine.

$ 100 08/15/2022 4XSetUp @ Stop Price

$ 95 09/06/2022 4XSetUp @ Entry Price

$ 70 08/15/2022 4XSetUp @ Target Price

The historical overarching scenario in the UKOIL could be looming, with a fall from the sideways trend formulated above – with a fall to the GAP, during the Coroa virus outbreak. This is what this 4XSetUps aims for. However, only if inflation comes down. But this is currently not doing us any favors – on the contrary. Still high inflation seems to be mutually increasing with increasing energy consumption in the context of the Russia/Ukraine war.

$ 45.20 03/06/2020 GAP intraday low
$ 37.88 03/09/2020 GAP intraday high

Because if inflation eases and/or the Ukraine/Russia war calms down, renewed demand from China shouldn`t keep UKOIL at this high levels! Granted, even if it doesn’t look like it at the moment. However, the price target of USD 70 remains – but now only longer, probably not until the 4th quarter of 2023

$ 86.68 10/25/2021 3rd big new & 2021 high
$ 77.82 07/06/2021 2nd big new high 2021
$ 71.36 03/08/2021 1st big new high 2021
$ 65.79 12/02/2021 low after 3rd big 2021 high
$ 64.76 08/23/2021 low after 2nd big 2021 high
$ 60.30 03/23/2021 low after 1st big 2021 high
$ 50.58 01/04/2021 1st day intraday 2021 lowaimed at. And less demand for consumption also means less activity from companies, so less freight transport etc. All this means less refueling of trucks, cars etc. Just a current stagflation – higher inflation than growth. Which, sooner or later, more or less, leads to a financial recession.

Always Consider What OPEC Is Doing – What OPEC May Be Doing In The Future

On October 5, OPEC announced a November production cut of 2.0 million barrels per day. Therefore, a shortage of global oil supply was expected, which is why the oil price was able to rise from October 5th. But for a few days now, demand concerns about the approaching recession have overshadowed the market and the oil price is falling. But this very back-and-forth of arguments and points of view can quickly change direction again, and the shortage in the market comes back to the fore as the best argument. Therefore, consistently adhere to the stop price of our 4XSetUp short trading capability. So that in the worst case, we are washed out of the oil price with a loss of $5. If the oil price were to rise above USD 100 again. Yes even above 100 USD will be traded (buy/sell) up to new high prices. What a possibility more than there siT! But I, above all because of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and its consequences for economic policy, do not assume that. On the contrary. I think that the cops, like me, by the way, was one thing at the beginning of the year – even before the outbreak of the war – are just too psychologically exhausted! Can’t get more than 100 USD? And if that’s the case, we paid 5 USD with our short trading capability 4XSetUp. So stay confident, as with food, with your family members – regarding the price of oil. And that regardless of whether you as a trader and/or investor are currently (not) involved in the market with an oil short position or oil long position.

I also read the following comments worth reading in this context, over the weekend. And don’t want to withhold it from you. For example, I read the following on Bloomberg this weekend on oil prices and the current state of the oil market: “After the OPEC+ meeting, the focus had shifted to the demand side,” said Hans van Cleef, Senior Energy Economist at ABN Amro. The market is “waiting for the next trigger that sets some direction.”

The International Energy Agency last week warned that production cuts could plunge the global economy into recession, while the US has criticized the cuts. What an unspoken economic humiliation for the USA – for us in Europe (especially for my home country Germany). After the demand for oil had been reduced for the first time due to economic and political reasons, the producers in other countries were asked about it – and they simply said NO. Metaphorically speaking, give us the middle finger. And rightly so; after morally discrediting one’s opposite (oil producers) in order to politically capitalize on the opposite (green politics)at the expense of the opposite. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said options for a reassessment of US-Saudi Arabia relations included “changes in our approach to security assistance.” He spoke on CNN’s State of the Union show on Sunday.