2022/10/09 (084) Technical Analysis

The USD Stabiluzes At The Excepted High Levels!
Was It that With The USD Rally? Is The Focus Now On The GBP?
I Don`t Know – But I Know That No One Has Ever Died From taking Profits…

The Financial Markets Continue To Focus On The Monetary Policy Of The Central Banks

The financial markets continue to focus on the monetary policy of the central banks. And the Federal Reserve, as the dollar’s producer and main lender, appears to be the most important player in the current financial market scenario after Russia’s attack on eastern Ukraine. Of all the major currencies, the FED seems to concern us financial market participants the most, in whatever capacity. Which also has an impact outside of the USA – and not just influencing national development. Because the dollar is still the indirect world reserve currency, since oil prices and many other commodity prices worldwide are largely traded in dollars and most global debt is denominated in dollars. But regardless of that, the Bank of England has always come to the fore lately. It is therefore worthwhile to follow the statements of the Bank of England at least as much from now on. To potentially take profits in US Dollars. yes even maybe maybe to buy the GBPUSD. Because this exchange rate is currently trading at historic lows! But that doesn’t mean it can go even deeper?

The US dollar rally, which has played out since the Fed’s monetary policy trend reversal, has been putting the US stock market in New York under constant pressure ever since. But monetary policy is and will remain a reaction to the US fiscal policy of the US Democrats, under the watch of Sleepy Joe Biden. And that because of an overreaction on his part and his party to the Corona Virus outbreak! Of course, looking back, we’re all smarter – including me. Therefore no accusation. But the political consequence cannot be to continue to make left-wing, Christian-democratic, green politics under the guise of freedom. Special only Trump, back in office. And also in the interest of a balanced global economy. Because the currencies of other countries, especially those of western-style industrialized countries, which are closely linked to the dollar system, continue to depreciate against the dollar. Which, thanks to the FED and Bos Powell, is very good for the US economy, since at least we are not importing any more US inflation, and despite the historically high trade balance balance, we can at least import more products and goods to the US at the same nominal value! Imagine my readers if the Fed hadn’t started raising interest rates?

The Dollar Is The Safe Haven Because Of Its Liquidity

The US Dollar is the safe haven because of its liquidity. One push of a button – thanks to the Internet – and we can all trade (buy/sell) US Dollars from anywhere in the world if we are connected to the Internet. The USD remains the cleanest shirt of any liquid currency in the world. So that its nominal can of course be explained and understood! But how far can the USD index go? Because by stopping the artificial liquidity and reducing their balance sheets, as well as raisingVery Important Price Action Areas
For The Next Days, Weeks And/Or Months

121.020 07/02/2001 yearly high 2001

120 4XSetUp @ Target

115.110 09/14/2001 intraday high of 1st day after 9/11

114.778 09/28/2022 new yearly and/or sep`22 high

112.747 10/09/2022 last price @ friday closed

112.200 09/14/2001 intraday low of 1st day after 9/11

110.055 10/04/2001

110 4XSetUp @ Stop Price

109.478 08/29/2022 new yearly and/or aug`22 high

109.294 07/14/2022 new yearly and/or jul`22 high

108.873 08/26/2022 significant low under 110 points

108.090 02/01/2001 yearly low 2001

107.680 09/13/2022 significant low under 110 points

105.788 06/15/2022 new yearly and/or jun`22 high

105.005 05/13/2022 new yearly and/or may`22 high
105.005 05/13/2022 c) parallel line of upside-trend

104.636 08/10/2022 b) lower line of upside-trend

103.928 04/28/2022 new yearly and/or apr`22 high

97.685 03/30/2022 a) lower line of upside-trend

96 02/14/2022 Entry Price @ 4XSetUpinterest rates to depress the demand for credit, the Fed reduces the supply of the US dollar. At the same time, however, demand for the greenback is increasing. Which should basically lead to a further nominal increase, since greater demand meets a shortage of supply! Or? The US dollar enjoys liquid safe haven status due to its position as the primary means of payment for oil and the economic and military power of the US. In uncertain times, investors in international markets increasingly flock to dollars to protect their capital. Just like us! The question I’m currently asking myself is: for how much longer?

The pace and level of rising interest rates could perhaps give us an indication of this. you justified the interest rate bets in Chicago? Do we observers still expect too many, too high, interest rate increases? So is the timing right when it comes to buying stocks in New York? And or should we rather assume another calendar year 2023, another new season, with an even more expensive US yield curve? And all of this in line with the other central banks! First and foremost with regard to the Bank of England – which is also facing a historic challenge. Central banks in other countries are lagging behind when it comes to raising interest rates. And that creates another imbalance in the interest rate front, because investors get more interest for dollars or bonds denominated in dollars than in other currency regions. Just another stimulus fueling dollar demand and the dollar’s rally.

It will be a very busy week in the US with earnings season kicking off, FOMC minutes, speeches from several Fed officials, and the inflation rate and retail sales data for September. In the UK, unemployment, industrial production, and GDP figures data will be released and China will publish inflation rate and trade figures. Elsewhere, investors will be watching India’s inflation rate and the Bank of Korea’s interest rate decision.

US Treasury Yields Rise After Jobs Report

The US 10-year Treasury note yield rose further toward 3.9%, approaching a 14-year peak of 4% hit on September 27th, after the hotter-than-expected employment report reinforced market bets the Federal Reserve will maintain its aggressive tightening path to tame inflation. Also, Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said the Fed has to be “singularly focused on inflation,” echoing remarks from other central bank officials who sounded unequivocally committed to bringing down inflation with more rate hikes, even at the cost of higher unemployment and weaker growth. Investors now look ahead to next week’s inflation report for more clues on the central bank’s rate hike path.US Wages Growth Steady In SeptemberUnited States Average Hourly Earnings

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the US rose by 10 cents, or 0.3% to $32.46 in September of 2022, the same pace as in August, in line with market forecasts. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.4%, to $27.77. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.0%, following a 5.2% rise in the prior month.

DXY Jumps After NFP Print

The dollar index jumped to 112.5 on Friday, after the NFP print came in above expectations reinforcing bets the Fed will continue hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. The US economy added a robust 263K jobs in September, above market expectations of 250K. Also, Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said the Fed has to be “singularly focused on inflation,” echoing remarks from other central bank officials who sounded unequivocally committed to bringing down inflation with more rate hikes, even at the cost of higher unemployment and weaker growth. Investors now look ahead to next week’s inflation report for more clues on the central bank’s rate hike path.