2022/09/19 (072) Technical Analysis – NYSE-WBA & CBOT

Dow Futures Down 0.5% In The First 6 Hours Of This Week
– Close All Other Trading Capabilties Except Long DXY And/Or Short UKOIL.
There Will Be An Insane Amount Of Opinions After Wednesday`s FED Meeting!

Dollar Firms Up Ahead Of Fed Meeting

The dollar index firmed up near 20-year highs around 109.8 on Friday and was set for its fourth weekly gain in five, as better-than-expected data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver another supersized interest rate hike at next week’s policy meeting. Solid US retail sales and jobless claims data on Thursday, along with a surprisingly hot CPI report earlier this week bolstered expectations that the Fed may need to move even more aggressively to arrest surging prices, with some analysts expecting a larger 100 basis point rate increase. The dollar was also supported by safe-haven inflows as the US economy remained resilient at a time an ongoing energy crisis in Europe threatened to push the region into recession, while China continues to grapple with the damaging effects of Covid lockdowns. The greenback holds above parity against the euro and trades near 37-year lows against the sterling.

US Bond Yields Extend Rise

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury noted rose above 3.46%, approaching the over 10-year peak of 3.5% hit in June as rising concerns that inflation is becoming entrenched deepened expectations that the Federal Reserve will further accelerate the pace of its monetary tightening. After this week’s CPI report surprised to the upside, the latest data showed that retail sales unexpectedly pick up and weekly unemployment claims fell to their lowest since May, ramping up bets that the Fed could raise interest rates by 100bps next week. Increasingly hawkish expectations raised Treasury yields across the board, with the yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year note surging to a 15-year high of 3.86%, inverting the 2-to-30 year yield curve to its steepest this century.

Wall Street Falls For 3rd Week

Major US stock indices extended losses on Friday to close at levels not seen since mid-July, as the concerning warning from FedEx reaffirmed investors’
worries about the darkening global growth outlook. The Dow closed almost 140 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively. FedEx shares plunged over 20% after it withdrew its full-year guidance and announced cost-cutting measures, citing “significantly worse” globaleconomic trends that are set to compound as major central banks tighten monetary policy to combat surging inflation. All three benchmarks notched their fourth losing week in five, with the Dow Jones shedding over 4%, the S&P 500 retreating nearly 5%, and the Nasdaq falling 5.5%, pressured by sharp declines in policy-sensitive sectors.

This Week Will Be Dominated By Interest Rate Decisions By The Major Central Banks Including The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, And/Or Bank Of Japan

Also, the focus will be on inflation rates for Japan and Canada, Ifo Business Climate for Germany, and housing data in the US. Finally, investors will be awaiting flash services and manufacturing PMI figures for the US, UK, Euro Area, France, Germany, Australia and Japan.

Meanwhile The CBOT_MINI-YM1! Edge Down as Fed Meeting Looms @ Monday Morning (Central European Time)
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US stock futures edged lower on Monday as investors braced for this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where it is expected to deliver another jumbo rate hike as it remains committed to bringing down inflation. Dow and S&P 500 futures were down about 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.9%. Last week, the Dow fell 4.13%, the S&P 500 dropped 4.77% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 5.48%, with all three benchmarks posting their fourth losing week in five and tumbling to their lowest levels in two months. Those moves came as a hotter-than-expected inflation report and solid economic data stoked fears that the Fed will need to move even more aggressively this week. Markets also reacted to a dire economic outlook from FedEx, citing declining shipping volumes as macroeconomic trends “significantly worsened.” Meanwhile, investors await a handful of earnings reports this week, while looking ahead to the next reporting season which begins in Oct.