2022/09/11 (066) Technical Analysis – CME-BTC1! & CBOT

The Profits Are Still Not Crashing On WallStreet,
So That The Psychological Map Is Worse Than The Profit Reality.
That`s Why A New Long 4XSetUps Trading Capability In The DOW Future…

Financial market prices are primarily driven instinctively, emotionally and rationally – and in this order, too, my dear readers.
Because it’s about money; for your own money. That man doesn’t want to lose; because you have a lot more to do with it. Why all of us, yes I assume all of us, including you and me, the greed (for more) and or the fear (of not having to lose it) instinctively, emotionally and rationally to act (buy/sell or nothing do) moved.

And so again, during the last day and weeks. After the longest stretch of losses since 2016 – on consecutive days, with minus 9 percent for the Nasdaq and 10 percent for the S&P 500 after Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech – there was a technical countermovement. Always rational in retrospect. That is the crucial point: always logical in retrospect. And that’s not surprising either, my dear readers – and what I really really want to anchor in the back of your mind again and again. Because that is one of the most important insights that you, as a market guy, will ever learn in the financial market! If any?

“The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposition position. I assume that markets are always wrong. Even if my assumption is occasionally wrong, I use it as a working hypothesis. It does not follow that one should always go against the prevailing trend. On the contrary, most of the time the trend prevails; only occasionally are the errors corrected. It is only on those occasions that one should go against the trend. This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis. … I am ahead of the curve. I watch out for telltale signs that a trend may be exhausted. Then I disengage from the herd and look for a different investment thesis. Or, if I think the trend has been carried to excess, I may probe going against it. Most of the time we are punished if we go against the trend. Only at an inflection point are we rewarded.” George Soros wrote, in Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve. And this is all about in the financial markets. Because were trading the future on the financial markets. And the future is unwritten; so from this pov (point of view) we`re pricing exceptations bullish/bearish in and/or out. An that´s why price action is, earlier than later, more or less, volatile.

Like in the summer of this year, when we already entered into a long 4XSetUp Trading Capability in the DOW JONES Future.
Also, this weekend (namely on Sunday, September 11, 2022) the mood on US WallStreet is bad! Worse than forthcoming US economic data? US inflation? US Producer Prices? US retail sales? US balance of trade? Everything comes out new in the upcoming calendar week. And the week after that, the FED interest ratedecision! 75 base points are in! No problem! But because in such a phase the news is so terrible, the warnings so plentiful, the sentiment so bad and the hedging rates so high that – of course always in retrospect – only a subordinate reason is required to come up with a “not logical or not rationale” short rally.

Dollar Eases After Powell Remarks And/Or Wall Street Extends Gains for 3rd Session

The dollar index eased below 109 on Friday and was set to snap a tree-week advance, as traders took some profits following a strong rally, while assessing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks about inflation. Powell said the Fed is “strongly committed” to fighting inflation and cautioned strongly against prematurely loosening policy. However, markets largely took his remarks in stride as traders have already priced in another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at this month’s policy meeting. His comments were also offset by the European Central Bank’s decision to raise its policy rate by a historic margin of 75 basis points on Thursday and signaled further tighteningas it aims to get ahead of inflation despite heightened recession risks.

US stocks extended gains for the third session on Friday, and snapped a 3-week losing streak as investors looked past hawkish headlines and piled into tech and growth stocks that have been battered since mid-August. Gains came ahead of next week’s CPI report, which is expected to show inflation slowed to 8.1% in August from 8.5% in July. The market movement came a day after Fed chair Jerome Powell, in a speech at the Cato Institute, reiterated that the central bank would do what it takes to tame inflation, further curbing any speculation of an imminent policy pivot. The sentiment is likely to remain subdued in anticipation of an economic slowdown and more tightening. On the corporate side, DocuSign jumped more than 10% after the company reported quarterly results that surprised investors on the upside while offering strong guidance. The Dow added 377 points, the S&P 500 1.5% and the Nasdaq 2.1%. For the week, the Dow gained almost 3%, and both the S&P and the Nasdaq about 4%.

The Last Mood Poll: If That Wasn’t A Bear Mood! What Else?

A bear share of over 53 percent, the historical average is 30, the bull rate is almost 18 percent (average 38%), the contraindication for further falling prices in the short term. Some banks and investors had already pointed out a possible rally in the previous days – it was obvious. In retrospect, logical – just instinctive, emotional, rational! I hope you learned at least something (from me); because that also satisfies me, my dear readers.

The calendar in the US will be dominated by inflation rate figures which should provide further clues on the Fed’s tightening path. Other important releases incl.retail sales and/or the University of Michigan sentiment index. Investors will be also closely watching the UK inflation rate and monthly GDP figures. Finally, China will be releasing industrial production, retail sales, and investment growth data for August.