2022/09/07 (064) Technical Analysis

The Fight Of The Oil Bulls/Bears For The 100 USD Continues, This Week
– Whether Green Taxes, Black Inflation, And/Or Geopolitics? Everything Matters!
We`ll Try Again A Short 4XSetUps Trading Capability in UKOIL This Week

Energy prices are going crazy. Not only in price action about oil, in financial markets. And/or not just here in my home country Germany. But rather also in our neighboring country Austria. Austria’s largest energy company can sing you something about that also. While last week I couldn’t avoid the headlines about Wien Energie. Wien Energie GmbH is wholly owned by WIENER STADTWERKE GmbH. The City of Vienna (as a corporation under public law) is the 100 percent owner of WIENER STADTWERKE GmbH. Due to a rapid rise in energy prices, the group was no longer able to deposit the securities required on the futures exchange. After the City of Vienna’s space for financial maneuver was restricted, because the federal government of ausria – by the way a conservative green one – had to grant a loan worth billions in a cloak and dagger operation.

What happened?
Wien Energie has sold forward electricity on the futures exchange in order to hedge the electricity price.
Energy prices have risen sharply as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the stock exchange, the seller has to deposit collateral and/ar thus prove his solvency. The payment security is adjusted daily based on the market price and the purchase price. Due to the significant price increase, the “loss”, i.e. the difference between the selling price and the market price, has increased significantly. As a result, the Group has to deposit further collateral that can no longer be covered from its own liquidity. The so-called margin serves as a safeguard so that the seller can actually meet the delivery obligation. If the electricity price stays at this level, these securities would actually become due. The argument that it is “only” about guarantees does not count in my opinion! What makes me suspicious is the level of hedging costs, which could be significant in the worst case.

Conservatives and/or greens, in the austrian federal government – as well as left-wing social democrats – speculate with tax money, and with brokers, with an obligation to make additional payments. What a political spectacle! What a political disaster, in my most lovely neigboring land austria! What kind of greed do these politcial actors have to develop as a single individual in order to stage something like this? What are these people? Or were they stupid, i.e. not competent, as they concluded the futures contracts? I dont know! All I know is that I don’t let myself be financed by CFD online brokers who demand an additional payment obligation! Doesn’t have to take part in every coffee trip into the blue; let alone advertise which ones – if you know what i mean! And/or not inform my readers about it, when I knows it! I got the idea to write this comment over the weekend. When I realized that there are actually fellow human beings, even readers, who do not understand futures trading, CFD trading! Future trading and/or CFD trading have not any magical notions about it? It`s not evil – on the contrary. That’s why I’m writing this comment now! I’m not mad either; let alone deal in something I don’t understand! And/or also not with someone else’s money! So tax money! As an employee of a supermarket, and also as an accountant, I would have been fired immediately! Isn`t it?

Greedy Black And/Or Green Price Action Drivers – Oil Companies And/Or Green Tax Collectors

Again and again we experience, I experience, as last weekend, that our fuels, both diesel and petrol, are currently rising to astronomical heights due to the risein crude oil prices. I still remember when I got my driving license for the first time, just over 10 years ago, in 2009. Also in the spring of 2011, when I, together with political green activists, made sure that there was a green prime minister for the first time, in my home state Baden-Würtenberg,here in my homeland Germany. And currently (in the meantime politically unfortunately) still exists. At that time, the price of oil was also well over USD 100 and diesel at the gas station cost a maximum of EUR 1.20 per liter. Always oscillated around EUR 1.10 – at the low even just EUR 1.00. And what happened to me on Saturday night!? The double?! I paid 2.24 EUR! With almost the same oil price on the market! And then it is said that the market, the private sector, is to blame? But is that true!? Without wanting to abolish the market and the state?!

As a learned student of Milton Friedman,
I would like to add 3 quotes to my commentary today on the current oil price: At first Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” And or also 2nd “Inflation is caused by too much money chasing after too few goods.” Which is basically true. And add a third crucial 3rd quote: “Inflation is a tax that does not need to be passed by Parliament. The government’s solution to a problem is usually just as bad as the problem.” And also throw a few words about the facts I experienced on the table of political arguments. At that time, the oil price costs more or less, on the market, the same! And today, as a consumer, as a taxpayer – who is not just me, who we all are, in every single country in the world – I pay twice as much at the gas station! Why? Right, political decisions! But which?

Personally, I lack the political intelligence to competently think the price determination through to the end at the gas station.
I hope there is a reader who can do better. And I publish his findings – with or without reference to the source (depending on your wishes).
Because we taxpayers and consumers are once again being kept from the actual truth, namely that questionable market mechanisms (financed with taxpayers’ money) that are consciously controlled by the large (black oil) corporations and tolerated by green politics are responsible for the price explosion. So most of the supposedly frugal, environmentally conscious and/or daydreaming buyers of electric cars will wake up to a price explosion (specifically for electricity for their new means of transport) more quickly than they would like. Like a green wanna be braggart from a Hollywood movie; outside his green room, from the studio! The alleged environmental protection through the new electrical marvels has already been refuted by many studies, especially since massive environmental sins and child labor are simply tolerated at the other end of the world, again in favor of powerful corporations.

Long story shortknowledge:
left-wing green tax policy and/or
black energy inflation is not worth it in our West!
At least not for us taxpayers and consumers! Our state is getting more and more indebted! (Green) taxes are going up, and/or (black) inflation also! In our so-called West we pay twice as much! While Saudi Aramco, the oil giant from Saudi Arabia, is now the most expensive company in the world. And with prices exploding on world markets, the Saudi Arabian oil giant Saudi Aramco has made a profit of $48.4 billion. The biggest win in human history; since companies published quaterly reports. And that is precisely thanks to us consumers and taxpayers, in our so-called West, due to political decisions. Saudi Aramco is meanwhile the world’s largest oil producer. Officially known as Saudi Arabian Oil Company, the company is primarily state-owned and is based in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. And it is the world’s most profitable company, eclipsing even tech giants such as Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL). The world got a sneak peek of this long-secretive company’s financial snapshot after credit rating agencies released financial details about Saudi Aramco in April 2019 just before its debut international bond sale, which raised $12 billion. Saudi Aramco began attracting increased investor attention in 2016 when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud announced plans to list 5% at a valuation of approximately $2 trillion in what became the largest initial public offering (IPO). Our Arabs declassify the US economically, under the clock of Sleepy Joe. Our Arabs declassify the US economically, under the clock of Sleepy Joe. And his us democrats policy, under the cloack of a liberal democracy! And that double – in both ways, my readers, all around the world! As capitalists; and or rather as Statesmen! Think about it? Even if, in our so-called West, nobody write about it publicly hardly.

“It follows from these theses that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary problem in the sense that it comes about and can come about exclusively through a faster expansion of the money supply compared to production.” With this quote, Milton Friedman countered a variety of arguments that said inflation was a result of cost pressures or increases in wages or the price of oil. Instead, inflation is always an effect of an excessive expansion of the money supply. But that is only partly true! It’s not just expanding the money supply! Rather, it is even more crucial the level of the key interest rate! Because cheap money – and if that goes to every incompetent private individual and/or rather politician – always leads to so-called inflation phenomens; much more so-called moral hazard, sooner or later, more or less! Just like in 2008, in the case of Lehmann Brothers, what may be most of my readers saw live back then!?