2022/08/24 (062) Technical Analysis

„Trend Confirmation And/Or Trend Reversal Formation
Might Manifest This Week?“, I Asked In Yesterday`s 4XSetUps
Bullish Price Action Continues Today; Thanks Saudi Energy Minister

Oil Prices Jumps More As 4% On Tuesday Trading Day,
So That Our UKOIL Long Trading Capability Was Stopped Out

WTI crude futures surged over 4% to around $94 per barrel as investors weighed tighter global supplies against a weakening global economic outlook and concerns about subdued demand. Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salma said that OPEC+ had the means to deal with such macro headwinds, opening the door for a possible cut in production in September. Such remarks from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, exacerbated concerns about supplies in an already tight market as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted global flows. Meanwhile, investors are bracing for the annual Jackson Hole symposium later this week, which is expected to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s strong commitment to fight inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes. Progress around reviving the 2015 nuclear accord also loomed large over the markets as a potential deal could boost Iranian oil exports by about 2.5 million bpd.

Most Important Price Action Areas
For This Week And/Or May Be Next Week Also

   109.02 $ (07/28/2022) 5th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High

107.85 $ (08/15/2022) SMA100 – Simple Moving Average (ohlc/4)

   107.64 $ (07/11/2022) 2st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
  107.56 $ (07/19/2022) 3rd high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.43 $ (07/08/2022) 1st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.42 $ (07/21/2022) 4th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High

   100.34 $ (08/12/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as bulls won false breakout intraday
   100.14 $ (08/11/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as bulls won false breakout intraday

100.06 $ (08/23/2022) last price @ 23:45 CET (central european time)

100.00 $ (08/15/2022) Stop Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

   99.07 $ (08/15/2022) SMA200 – Simple Moving Average (ohlc/4)

   95.00 $ (08/15/2022) Entry Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

      94.55 $ (07/14/2022) 1st low under 200SMA this year 2022
       92.82 $ (08/05/2022) 2nd low under 200SMA this year 2022

   70.00 $ (08/15/2022) Target Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

“The development of prices on the financial markets and the physical oil markets would have become increasingly decoupled”, said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman of the Bloomberg news agency on Monday. He spoke of extreme price volatility and a lack of liquidity that could force OPEC+ to act. This statement hit like a bomb in the last 48 hours, 2 trading days, more precisely almost last 36 hours (while I`m writing these lines). “Market prices did not reflect underlying supply and demand fundamentals, which could prompt OPEC+ detection to cut production when meeting next month,” the minister added. So that the last, in the lastfew weeks, fallen oil prices recovered more than surprisingly. Surprising, at least from my perspective. So the market, i.e. excactly the majority of market participants, reacted bullishly to this new information and wanted the UKOIL to trade above USD 100 again. My assumption that due to growing concerns about the economy in our so-called West, demand would fall – after all, in our so-called West, we consume most of the raw material – collapsed like a house of cards. So that we realized our short trading capability in the UKOIL with a loss! Unfortunately. But who can take into account that the Minister of Energy, Sadi Arabia, will speak in person? And thus (un)consciously (un)intentionally driving prices up again? Not me! However #InshaAllah

Negotiations On The Iranian Nuclear Deal In Vienna
Are Taking A Back Seat For The Time Being, For This Week

The prospect of boosting oil exports from the important oil producing country Iran initially receded into the background on Tuesday. The market participants, the market, took the statements of the Saudi Arabian energy minister as a reason to trade the oil price more expensive again. Because negotiations are currently underway about a possible revival of the international nuclear agreement with Iran. And that was the main reason for my UKOIL short trading capability. After China also released worse-than-expected economic data earlier last week. The aim of the negotiations with Iran in Vienna is to limit the nuclear program. At the same time, economic sanctions against Iran are to be dropped.

Over the last weekend, US President Joe Biden called the ruling leaders of Germany, France and Great Britain to discuss the nuclear deal with Iran. Which was hopeful news for oil bears. I count myself among them. But since Abdulaziz bin Salman’s words yesterday, the oil price doesn’t seem to be interested. On the contrary. As the price development in the UKOIL proves. The oil price is currently trading above USD 100 again.

That`s why , I will wait and see what the oil price development is for the time being. In order not to formulate a lossy trading capability for UKOIL again. So if you want to trade the price of oil, don’t expect me to formulate another 4Xsetup in the coming days. Only again when the negotiations in Vienna are officially closed. If any!?