2022/08/16 (056) Technical Analysis

May We Saw US Inflation Peak In June 2022,
But With Still Historic Consumer Prices Ahead?
That`s Why I Don`t Except Oil Above 100 USD Anymore!

After falling at the beginning of the week, oil prices have come under pressure again. A barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent for delivery in October cost 94.14 US dollars as of Tuesday afternoon. That was 96 cents less than the day before. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery fell 54 cents to $88.87. So that we`re with our yesterday’s SHORT Entry currently in the red. Don’t let the admittedly exciting daily fluctuations, which also concern me more or less, not upset you. And realize a possible loss if UKOIL should trade above 100$ again. Because if UKOIL should come back, which I am assuming, then I will formulate a new SHORT trading capability at 95$ again.

I’m simply assuming that the prospect of increasing supply in the future, with lower demand at the same time, and will continue to push down the price of oil further. My colleagues describe the weak economic development in China as a particular burden. “Problems in the real estate sector and the government’s zero-Covid strategy are likely to continue to weigh on the economy in the short to medium term, so sustained headwinds for oil prices can be expected from this side,” i.e. write Commerzbank’s commodities experts. What I don’t want to contradict in any way. But I think that demand should also increase in the USA, let alone in Europe, especially here in Germany. And that too, because of state-organized deficit green fiscal policy. Which costs us taxpayers and consumers! Unlike in Saudi Arabia.

And the prospect of a return of Iranian oil to the world market has also come back as an added drag for bulls on a rising oil price in recent days. After negotiations between Iran, the EU and the US on a new nuclear deal made further progress. Iran has now sent its response to a compromise proposal to the European Union. The EU announced that these would now be examined and that the other partners in the agreement and the USA would be in consultation. Efforts to revive the 2015 deal aim to curb Iran’s nuclear program. In return, the oil sanctions could also fall and therefore the supply of oil could rise again.

Most Important Price Action Areas
For This Week And/Or May Be Next Week Also

   109.02 $ (07/28/2022) 5th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.64 $ (07/11/2022) 2st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
  107.56 $ (07/19/2022) 3rd high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.43 $ (07/08/2022) 1st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.42 $ (07/21/2022) 4th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   100.34 $ (08/12/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as the bulls won that day
   100.14 $ (08/11/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as the bulls won that day

100.00 $ (08/15/2022) Stop Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

   95.53 $ (08/15/2022) last price

   95.00 $ (08/15/2022) Entry Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

      94.55 $ (07/14/2022) 1st low under 200SMA this year 2022
       92.82 $ (08/05/2022) 2nd low under 200SMA this year 2022

   70.00 $ (08/15/2022) Target Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading CapabilityBrent Crude Struggles For Direction, On Tueday Morning

Brent crude futures swung between small gains and losses at aorund $95 per barrel on Tuesday, after falling more than 5% in the previous two sessions and remaining close to levels not seen since February on concerns that a global downturn could heavily impact energy demand. China’s factory and retail activity slowed unexpectedly in July, prompting the central bank to cut key lending rates to shore up demand. In the US, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index posted its second largest monthly decline ever in August. The prospect of increased Iranian oil exports also weighed on prices as Iran responded to the EU’s proposal for reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, calling on the US to show a “realistic approach and flexibility” to resolve three remaining issues. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco head Amin Nasser said Sunday that the state-owned firm stands ready to raise crude output to its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels a day if the Saudi Arabian government orders it to do so.

“Oil Prices Have Been Trending Down Since Mid-June”,
A Friednly Reader Answered Me This Morning, Who Not To Be Quoted Replied

From the point of view of technical analysis, a trend channel can also be drawn in the oil price, in addition to your lines, in the last issue, he argued, within which the oil price development, presented even better, is moving downwards. After a pullback to the 200-day blue line, there was renewed selling. As of today, Tuesday, August 16, 2022, at 1:56 p.m. (CET), UKOIL is trading at USD 95.45.

We`re Awaiting Industry Data On U.S. Crude Stockpiles Later Today

Oil and gasoline stockpiles likely fell last week, while distillate inventories rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Barclays lowered its Brent price forecasts on Tuesday by $8 per barrel for this year and next, as it expects a large surplus of crude oil over the near-term due to “resilient” Russian supplies. In the United States, output in the major U.S. shale oil basins will rise to 9.049 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the highest since March 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a report on Monday. In the Permian, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, output will hit a record 5.408 million bpd, it said.