2022/08/15 (055) Technical Analysis

May We Saw US Inflation Peak In June 2022,
But With Still Historic Consumer Prices Ahead?
That`s Why I Don`t Except Oil Above 100 USD Anymore!

Oil prices have extended initial losses. As of Monday afternoon, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent for delivery in October cost $94.21. That was $3.94 less than Friday. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery fell $3.79 to $88.31.

Weak economic data from China fueled expectations that demand for oil in the world’s second largest economy could falter. Surprisingly, retail sales growth slowed in July compared to a year earlier. Chinese industrial production also unexpectedly lost momentum.

Hopes for a revival of the nuclear deal with Iran then weighed on oil prices in the morning. There is a basis for signing a deal to revive the 2015 nuclear deal “in the near future” if the other side takes a realistic approach, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry said. Iran must make concessions on the nuclear issue in order to gain concessions on other issues. If there is an agreement and the sanctions are relaxed, more Iranian crude oil would be available for the world market, which should depress the price accordingly.

Oil prices are currently at levels seen just before the start of the war in Ukraine on February 24th. In view of the sanctions against the oil-producing country Russia, prices then rose significantly. Recently, growing fears of a recession weighed on oil prices.

Most Important Price Action Areas
For This Week And/Or May Be Next Week Also

   109.02 $ (07/28/2022) 5th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.64 $ (07/11/2022) 2st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
  107.56 $ (07/19/2022) 3rd high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.43 $ (07/08/2022) 1st high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   107.42 $ (07/21/2022) 4th high after 200SMA served as support after 13 years High
   100.34 $ (08/12/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as the bulls won that day
   100.14 $ (08/11/2022) 100$ bulls/bear fight as the bulls won that day

100.00 $ (08/15/2022) Stop Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

   95.00 $ (08/15/2022) Entry Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

      94.55 $ (07/14/2022) 1st low under 200SMA this year 2022
       92.82 $ (08/05/2022) 2nd low under 200SMA this year 2022

   70.00 $ (08/15/2022) Target Price of this 4XSetUp SHORT UKOIL Trading Capability

Oil Price Winner Stock:
Big Oil Saudi Aramco Posts World Record Quarterly Earnings

The recent surge in oil prices has helped Saudi Aramco post another record result.
The company posted the highest adjusted quarterly profit of any publicly traded market exchange listed company in the world.

As the state-controlled company announced on Sunday yesterday, sales climbed by an incredible 80 percent to up to 150 billion US dollars. Net income rose 90 percent to $48.4 billion in the second quarter, compared to $25.5 billion in the same period last year. Free cash flow increased 53 percent year over year to $34.6 billion.The oil giant plans to use the profit to pay down debt and invest in a major expansion of its production capacity. Aramco is betting that oil demand will continue to grow for the rest of the decade, as green socialist politicians try to sell us consumers and voters, in our so-called West, under the guise of liberal democracy, palatable that we should be transformed into green to save the world. A left-wing disaster: „the state is becoming over-indebted year to year – and we consumers & taxpayers are paying more more!“

Brent Crude Approaches $93

Brent crude futures fell more 5% to nearly $93 per barrel on Monday, approaching February lows of $91 hit last month as prolonged recession concerns weighed on the outlook of energy demand. Industrial production growth in top oil importer China missed expectations, pointing to a sluggish recovery from the strict Covid lockdowns in the end of the second quarter. The increasingly worse economic outlook added to OPEC’s expectations of a decline in oil demand and supply increases, which challenged contrary views from the IEA citing gas-to-oil switching for power generation. In the meantime, hopes of more supplies from Iran emerged after the state run IRNA said that it could accept the EU’s offer to revive the Iranian nuclear deal. Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco head Amin Nasser said Sunday that the state-owned firm stands ready to raise crude output to its maximum capacity of 12 million barrels a day if the Saudi Arabian government orders it to do so.

Mood Driven Future Expectations About The Price Action
Are Likely To Push Oil Prices Lower Above 100$ The Rest Of This Year

I no longer expect an intensification, escalation, even further escalation, of the Russia/Ukraine war. The fact that our media reporters, in our so-called West, are no longer tacitly salivating while they report on eastern Ukraine satisfy me truly extremely positive. For eastern Ukraine. For all peaceful (non) participants. What consequently means: „Just less pressure on the oil price!“ And again a prospect for the future where both Ukraine and Russia will both be able to offer raw materials again on the world market. So that the supply should generally tend to increase; i.e. the prices are falling.