2022/07/19 (052) Technical Analysis

The Price Zone More Or Less Around 30.000 Points
Was Successfully Defended By The Bulls During The Last Week…
It Remains A Relentless Price Battle This Week – With An Uncertain Outcome!

At the US WallStreet, the spotlight is this week on corporate earnings results and/or housing data. Elsewhere, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and/or the People’s Bank of China will hold monetary policy meetings. While UK, Canada, and/or Japan release inflation figures for June. Also not to ignore are may be all flash manufacturing and services PMI figures for the US, for Germany, for France, for UK, and/or the Euro Area.

However, Let Us Get To the Point For This Week
– From A Short-Term Perspective, In The Form Of A Technical Analysis

Basically, for us bullish observers of the Dow futures, it is important to first defend the high (31,624) and/or the low (30,495) from last Friday. When US retail sales came in better than expected. And the Consumer Sentiment Index did not manifest a new historical low of below 50 points, as in May 2020. Although 51.1 points also suggest no reason to buy stocks on US WallStreet. Nevertheless, the high (31,624) and/or the low (30,495) must be defended. Since a trading range of over 1,000 points, of 1,129 points, to remain clear in detail, is extraordinary. So that we will have to wait and see whether a technical trend reversal chart formation will form at least in the short term for the coming trading days, this week and also next week.

Wall Street Ends Sharply Higher

The Dow rallied over 700 points on Tuesday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 2.8% and 3.3%, respectively, as investors welcomed a slew of upbeat earnings reports while reassessing the outlook for tightening monetary policy. Truist Financial and Citizens Financial Group were the latest banks to report strong results, rising roughly 2% each and pushing other financial shares deep into the green. Halliburton jumped more than 2% after posting an over 40% gain in second-quarter profit driven by high oil prices. Results from Johnson & Johnson also topped estimates, but the company cut its full-year profit and sales forecast due to a hit from a stronger dollar. On the negative side of the ledger, IBM shares tumbled over 5% after lowering its cash flow forecast, despite reporting results that surpassed analysts’ earnings and revenue estimates. Meanwhile, Twitter jumped nearly 3% amid news that its lawsuit against Elon Musk over his aggressive takeover will go to trial in October.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Consolidates Near 3%

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged up toward 3% in the third week of July, as investors continued to weigh the outlook of tighter monetary policy. Last Friday, Fed Governor Waller and St Louis Fed Governor James Bullard said they favoured a 75 bps interest rate increase, rather than the 100 bps move. At the same time, recent economic data showed the economy remains robust, despite strong inflation and rising interest rates. Fed policymakers enter a “blackout” period this week before the FOMC meeting on July 26th and 27th. Focus this week will be on corporate earnings and housing market indicators.

Dollar Index Falls for 3rd Session

The dollar index extended losses for a third day to trade below 107 on Tuesday, aftertouching 109.29 last week, a level not seen since September of 2002. Traders continue to adjust bets for the next Fed move, with most seeing a 75bps rate hike next week, instead of 100bps. Still, the US dollar remains strong and close to 20-year highs amid soaring inflation and concerns over slower growth and as the Fed is expected to continue to raise rates more quickly than most central banks around the world.

The Most Important Higher-Level Prizes

36832 01/05/2022 (a) previous all-time high
35752 02/22/2022 (b) 1st interim high after all-time high
35413 04/21/2022 1st interim new high above 200SMA after 3rd low above
35281 03/29/2022 (c) 2nd interim high after all-time high
33928 12/01/2021 (1) last low under 200SMA before all-time high
33434 05/31/2022 false break-out after reversal before lowest price
33031 01/24/2022 (2) 1st interim low after all-time high
32167 02/24/2022 (3) 2nd interim high after all-time high
31867 06/28/2022 1st interim new high after lowest price

31797 07/19/2022 today`s close (last trading price)

31490 07/08/2022 2nd interim high after lowest price
31148 05/12/2022 1st another interim new low after (abc) (123) reversal
30585 05/20/2022 2nd another interim new low after (abc) (123) reversal
29639 06/17/2022 lowest price so far after all-time high

For All Our Love Of Technical Analysis,
Don`t Underestimate Fundamental New Numbers From The US Economy
– And/Or Much More The Reaction Of The FED, In Form Of Interest Rate Hikes

Regardless of the current technical picture, new data from the US economy must also be taken into account. Because the FED cannot avoid a hawkish monetary policy in order to suppress US inflation. And that even if you are not held responsible if we continue to argue competently. Since Sleepy Joe Biden, since he has been in charge of the White House Office, has reversed the policies of his predecessor Donald J. Trump. That the US consumers are now paying for. And also the FED, with above-average interest rate increases. Including the danger of conjuring up a US recession as a result.