2022/05/09 (042) Technical Analysis – UKOIL

USD Is Likely To Continue Higher This Week,
While US Yield Curve Should Become More Expansive Also.
The 100 USD Mark In Oil Has Been Defended In The Last Few Weeks!


US Dollar Has More Market & Fundamental (Monetary Incl. Fiscal Policy) Support Than The Euro,
But I Still Don`t Realize An Mega Bullish Exaggerated US Dollar Optimism In The Forex Community,
That An Another Rise In The Oil Price Is Much More Likey As Not – Independent From The Daily News

From a technical and fundamental point of view, the US dollar should continue to strengthen against the euro (and also against most Asian currencies). US Dollar positioning data remains broadly neutral. From a market standpoint, there is no sign of extreme US dollar optimism. A positive correlation for the euro with the US dollar is unlikely and would only occur with pronounced euro optimism, which i do not currently see. I therefore do not consider hedging against the US dollar to be necessary profitable.

The strong US dollar and rising bond yields held back gold prices in April in US dollar terms, while gold rose by +2.5% in euro terms. There have been fewer gold optimists of late and net futures long contracts have returned to decline. However, gold retains its “hedge/hedging character”, whilein the event of a further geopolitical escalation. In my per sonally point of view, while an event of a possible embargo on embargo on Russian oil, the price of oil should rise again significantly. A gas embargo would most likely lead Europe (especially Germany) into a deep recession.

Our Trading Capability Thus Took Off Faster Than Excepted

On Tuesday, the 15th February, in the 3rd Edition, of our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newsletter, i formulated a trading capability in the UKOIL – incl. with an entry price (93 USD), target price (130 USD) and or stop price (84 USD). In this case, UKOIL reached our target price. Everything i wrote was and or everything i`m still writing is no an investment recommendations. But, in the truest sense of the word, a trading capability for self-deciders. All my readers decide for themselves whether to trade something or not – regardless of my opinion. Because my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newsletter is 100% commercially with 100% the best of my knowledge and beliefs. I always encouraging you to get better informed – to stay even 100% informative. So that you can better decide for yourself (not) act – buy/sell whatever you want.

Use The Psychologically Important Price Action Area At 100 USD As A Trading Capability

Even though I formulated our current possibility at $112. I think it’s more profitable for traders and investors to go long than short. For now, I’m basically neutral on prices below $100. Because I then assume that the Urkaine conflict has been priced out for the time being. Although no financial market happened shortly before the outbreak of war, in February. So that we can assume, if we want to, that the rising oil price is mainly due to the fiscal policy of the left-liberal states in our so-called West. And on your verbal-political green agenda, which sends us taxpayers and consumers back to a green Soviet Union, green Yugoslavia, and or green GDR. In other words, in an (un)intentionally state-organized shortage economy. That`s why basicly above 100 USD rather long as neutral or short. And rather neutral under 100 USD…

Looking At All The Charts Around,
The Current Price Action Is Not A Big Deal Yet

This is WTI Oil over the past 12 months. You can clearly see the spike up to $130 at the beginning of March – it was the panic reaction in the price of oil shortly after the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Fears of shortages are still in the air, and a hunt for other oil suppliers outside of Russia may also be on the cards. But at the moment, as I said, concerns about the slowdown in the global economy are predominant in the short term. Is it a short-term fear? Can the oil price plummet a little further and then the news shift back to the higher price themes? If this trading week continues to be weak on the stock market, oil could also be pulled further down for the time being.

Reasons For Possibly Further Rising Oil Prices

OPEC decided last week not to put any additional supply on the market and, as before, to increase daily oil production in June “only” by 432,000 barrels per day, as it did in May. This does not create much relief for the West, which wants to do without Russian oil – a good argument for a higher oil price! And there are other reasons why the price of oil could continue to rise significantly. The European Commission last week announced its proposal for an EU oil embargo against Russia. However, not all EU member states are in favor of this step. Problems can be seen above all in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, where due to the pipeline system they are tied to Russian oil supplies. The EU partners probably still have to do some convincing here that they will ensure the supply of oil to these countries if they should block Russian oil. There may therefore be delays at EU level. Nevertheless, an agreement is possible at any time. If the EU then refuses to buy oil from Russia, this is bullish for the oil price. Because Europe then has to buy its oil elsewhere on the world market, which creates buying pressure globally.

Brent Gains As Traders Weigh G7 Ban

Brent crude futures traded around $112.5 per barrel on Monday after closing at a 3-week high in the previous session, as investors weighed a pledge by the G7 to ban Russian oil imports, as well as a cut in official prices by Saudi Arabia and China’s ongoing lockdowns. The leaders of the group of industrialized nations made the promise as they met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to stress their support and display unity among western allies on Victory in Europe Day. A similar plan by the EU has yet to be agreed as some members object. Traders also assessed Saudi’s move to cut prices for buyers in Asia as coronavirus lockdowns weighed on consumption in top importer China. State-controlled Saudi Aramco reduced prices for the first time in four months, lowering its key Arab Light grade for next month’s flows to $4.4 a barrel above its benchmark.