2022/04/19 (028) Technical Analysis – NDX

Nasdaq 100 slightly up today,
but development in the current year is still negative.
However, analysts are bullish for stocks like it hasn’t been in 10 years!


After a volatile quarter that saw the stock market post its worst performance in two years, Wall Street analysts see many opportunities in the decline. They are bullish on these stocks! The S&P 500 fell into correction territory in the first quarter of this year. The Fed’s turnaround in interest rates and the war in Ukraine were the triggering factors. Analysts see massive upside potential for some stocks after the sell-off. According to FactSet, 57.3 percent of all analyst estimates at the end of March were “buy”. In February it was 57.4 percent. According to CNBC, these are the highest values since September 2011.

“What is the reason for the upbeat outlook on valuations and price targets? A likely reason is that analysts have been increasing earnings forecasts for 2022 and 2023 for the S&P 500 companies for several months,” quoted CNBC as John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. At the sector level, analysts are most optimistic about energy (66 percent), information technology (64 percent) and communication services (62 percent). These three sectors had the most buy ratings as of March 31, Butters said.

The most pessimistic are the analysts for the consumer staples (41 percent) and utilities (49 percent) sectors. The two sectors had the lowest percentage of buy ratings at the end of the first quarter.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 by analyst ratings are:
Alaska Air Group
Alexandria Real Estate Equities
Alphabet C
Amazon
Alphabet A
Assurant
Caesars Entertainment
IQVIA
Microsoft
Signature Bank

Nasdaq 100 slightly up today

On the American stock market, investors are currently in a buying mood. The Nasdaq 100 rose slightly by 2.14 percent. The share barometer improves to 14,208 points.

These titles are going downhill

At the bottom of the Nasdaq 100 are the titles of Moderna, JDcom and Pinduoduo. The tail light is the paper of Moderna. Moderna stock is currently trading at $151.47. It has become cheaper by 2.12 percent. The stock of JDcom (ADR) also recorded price losses. Discount compared to the closing price of the previous day: 1.93 percent. The JDcom paper is currently priced at $56.39. Pinduoduo is also lighter with a minus of 1.29 percent. The stock was last listed at $39.49.

Irrespective of today’s plus

The development of the Nasdaq 100 in the current year is still negative. Since the beginning of this year, the stock barometer has recorded a loss of 13.51 percent. Nasdaq is the abbreviation for National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations, i.e. the computer exchange of the US over-the-counter traders. High-growth and speculative securities are traded on this New York stock exchange.The Nasdaq 100 Index is composed of the 100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq by market capitalization. In addition to US stocks, it can also contain international stocks, provided they are traded on the Nasdaq and meet the selection criteria. According to the index rules, stocks from the financial sector are not to be found in the Nasdaq 100, instead mainly technology, internet, software and IT stocks. The Nasdaq 100 is calculated as a price index disregarding distributions.

Important basic technical price areas

If the previous lows are not recaptured by bulls, further price losses are imminent. Above all, aorund the recent interim new lows at 13.724 (01/24/2022), at 13.065 (02/24/2022), and or 13.020 (13/03/2022). Basically, if the NDX trades at least 20% from the last all-time high, we are honest and competent in a bear market. I’m a friend of the old school – not only when it comes to participating in the financial market. That`s why, I will not lose myself in new definitions. So that I will only ever speak of a bear market when the NDX is trading at 13411 points and lower. However, the 13411 price area is not that important in itself. Much more because the subject of the bear market itself, in the media, is also addressed by other financial market participants, which then, more or less, sooner or later, leads to an even more volatile market price asctions. And that`s why bulls/bears usually question their medium-term optimism/pessimism in such technical market price action scenarios. And then, based on that, (not) reposition theirself long/short.