2022/03/09 (016) Technical Analysis

„Oil traded at our target price of 130 USD on monday trading session“
During todays volatile trading session Oil feel by more than 10%,
so that we can us the reset for a new trading capability…

XXXOil hits highest since 2008 on supply concerns at the beginning of this week yet
WTI crude futures jumped to their highest levels since 2008 early on Monday, amid the risk of Western ban on Russian oil imports, exacerbated by delays in the Iran nuclear talks and the potential return of Iranian crude exports. The US oil benchmark soared nearly 13% to hit $130 per barrel before paring some gains to trade around $126, on track for its biggest daily percentage gain since May 2020. US secretary of state Antony Blinken said Sunday the US and its allies are considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports, in an effort to ramp up sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal were mired in uncertainty on Sunday following Russia’s demand for written US guarantees that sanctions on Russia would not hurt its trade with Iran, seen by analysts as a way for Moscow to bypass Western sanctions. China also reportedly made similar demands regarding its trade with Iran, complicating efforts to seal a nuclear deal.

Our Trading Capability thus took off faster than excepted
On Tuesday, the 15th February, in the 3rd Edition, of our DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newsletter, i formulated a trading capability in the UKOIL – incl. with an entry price (93 USD), target price (130 USD) and or stop price (84 USD). In this case, UKOIL reached our target price. Everything i wrote was and or everything i`m still writing is no an investment recommendations. But, in the truest sense of the word, a trading capability for self-deciders. All my readers decide for themselves whether to trade something or not – regardless of my opinion. Because my DEVISE 2 DAY Affiliate Financial Market Online Newsletter is 100% commercially with 100% the best of my knowledge and beliefs. I always encouraging you to get better informed – to stay even 100% informative. So that you can better decide for yourself (not) act – buy/sell whatever you want.

Yesterday, while Tuesdays trading session oil rally takes a breather
WTI crude futures held around $121 per barrel on Tuesday after hitting a 14-year high of $130.5 in the previous session, as Germany indicated its reluctance to ban Russia energy imports, while South Korea said it’s unlikely to join energy sanctions. Investors also remained watchful of possible demand destruction amid the fallout from the war in Ukraine, as higher commodity prices across the board fueled inflationary and growth concerns. The moves came a day after oil jumped more than 10% before giving up most of the gains, after the US said it was considering a ban on Russian oil imports to up the ante on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Markets were also rattled following reports of a possible delay in reviving the Iran nuclear deal after Russia demanded trade guarantees from the US.

Today oil turns negative in volatile trade
WTI crude futures fell to below $120 per barrel in volatile trade on Wednesday after rising more than 2% earlier in the session as investors try to assess the impact of recent sanctions in the oil market. US oil prices have gained more than 30% since Russia invaded Ukraine and hit their highest since 2008 at above $130 this week amid fears of further supply disruptions and escalating sanctions, exacerbated by uncertainties about the possible return of Iranian crude to global markets. The US imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports and Britain said it would phase out Russian oil imports through the end of 2022. Moreover, private oil companies including BP and Shell said they were stepping back further from doing business with Russia, with Shell immediately halting all purchases of Russian crude and shutting its service stations in the country.My fundamental view of the oil price has not changed – independed of our successfully trading capability
Okay admittedly, the price of oil fell more than significantly today. WTI oil is down $9 in the last two hours to currently $109.72, Brent oil is down a good $10. Where the price of oil had risen sharply for days because Russia’s attack on Ukraine fueled fears of export bans and shortages, the situation is now apparently changing. Or at least there are signs of a certain relaxation. So at this point I would like to formulatre a new old trading capability about UKOIL. The price target is 130 USD once again. But the stopp price i raised something up, after bulls took over the psychological import price of 100 USD – even by 100 USD.

Venezuela has surprisingly released 2 US citizens from prison.
This can be seen as a sudden relaxation of the tense situation towards the USA. Now there are increasing signs that the USA could approach Venezuela so that the country with the largest oil reserves in the world (!) can become a substitute for the missing Russian oil on the world market. Even if it would take a long time to increase production at the ailing facilities in Venezuela, it would at least be a clear signal that Russian oil from other sources could be replaced.

But that’s not all. The oil price is currently falling mainly because of statements about Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). According to recent reports, Iraq has said it can increase production if OPEC+ requests it. And US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has signaled that the UAE would support an increase in OPEC+ production. The UAE ambassador to the US earlier said it was in favor of increasing oil production and would encourage OPEC to consider increasing production. And even if Saudi Arabia has not yet been mentioned – the country could also increase its production volume – if one only wants to. In a nutshell: The possibility of being able to replace Russian oil from other sources reduces fears on the world market that Russia could announce a stop in oil supplies. As a result, the price of oil is currently falling.

Last price of UKOIL was around 112 USD
This trading capability offers a chance of 18 USD inlusive a risk of 12 USD. So a more than solid chance risk ratio of 1.5. And regardless of the upcoming price volatility in the oil prices, which (if i`m not wrong) certainly will not be less than the historical average. If you may allow me to formulate it carefully! However? The price action in the oil prices, in our UKOIL trading capability too, will be excited! What us all financial market participants todays trading day showed more as impressive! Isn`t it?