2022/03/01 (011) Technical Analysis

APPLE
„Back to new all-time highs, until end 2022 and start of 2023?
But only if bulls can defeat 150 USD this spring (march madness)!“

It could be a big month for Apple products and services, many observers write, but I don’t think so!
But I am still optimistic for the whole year of 2022! So above USD 150 I still perceive a long-term conservative investment. Also for technical reasons, as far as the chart of the Apple share is concerned. February may not have seen any new products other than the Black Unity Apple Watch, but it was a busy month nonetheless. Most notably, we got our first glimpse of iOS 14.5, and this release is shaping up to be a major update with a new feature that lets you unlock your iPhone with your Apple Watch, a landscape iPad home screen, and dozens of new emoji. But March could get even better with rumors of new products on the way.

What is Apple introducing in March 2022?
Above all, the presentation of the iPhone SE 3 is expected.
Like its predecessor from 2020, the affordable iPhone should retain the design of the iPhone 8 with a home button. However, the new model should be equipped with the current A15 chip and support 5G. A new edition of the iPad Air is also likely to come.

First Apple Event 2021: March 23 is traded as a rumored day
Apple likes to choose spring to introduce new products. In addition to new iPads and key finders, AirPods 3 and more could also be on the agenda. Apple is preparing to launch new products. The group usually holds a first event in March, where new hardware is presented, and the rumor mill has now pointed to March 23 as a possible event date. As with the previous product presentations, Apple is likely to rely on a virtual event where the hardware introduction takes place in the form of a pre-recorded video.

What will Apple bring out in 2022?The successor to the M1 processor is slated to launch in 2022, and fall seems like the perfect time. Apple is reportedly planning a similar chip with eight cores (four for performance and four for efficiency), similar RAM limits (8GB or 16GB), and a slight increase in performance.

These new Apple products await us in 2022
iPad with MagSafe and more. After a quiet 2020, things went fast for Apple in 2021. With the 24″ iMac, the iPad mini, the AirPods 3 and the MacBook Pro, the company presented various redesigns of well-known products. According to Mark Gurman, this should continue in 2022 (Apple, Tech, Devices News & TV for Bloomberg)

What to except this Summer 2022?
Apple usually uses the summer to present new software. iOS 16, iPadOS 16, macOS 13 and watchOS 9 are likely to be on the WWDCschedule this year. The new apple products for the iPhone, Apple Watch and Mac are often presented in autumn. As usual, a new iPhone can be expected from September 2022. If Apple stayed with the current nomenclature, the iPhone 14 and accordingly the iPhone 14 Pro would come, both in different sizes.

Conservative free long-term investment
Inflation will not come down so quickly over the course of the year. If at all next year. And I don’t even expect normal inflation, between 2 and 3 percent, until 2024! If any? Which is why the FED will be forced to raise interest rates. I call this process QT (quantitative tightening) – interest rates at least as high as the inflation rate. On the one hand, this means that US bond yields will rise. And on the other hand, shares naturally come under pressure. In particular, technology stocks, from Silicon Valley. Since, as a financial market participant, you get security securities, such as US government bonds, with higher interest rates. And with a lower risk of default – compared to stocks, which can fall into the abyss. But there are also differences among technology stocks: Microsoft and or Apple i.e.

Who uses less Windows?
During a 1.2 year period due to high inflation, lower economic growth. Let alone sell his iPhone, iPad? And or consume less Apple services? Correct! And that’s exactly why I’m basically positive about USD 270 USD in Microsoft share and or 150 USD in Apple share And expect Apple stock to find its way back above $200 as well! If not this year – based on the future scenario just briefly outlined – then in 2023! And Micrsoft on the way back to 400 USD also …

Conservative free long-term investment
If we assume that the Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates to up to 2 percent by the end of the year. And the US government bonds are traded again at over 2 percent in the long term. Our preference is given to qualitative profitable companies – concret with a historically average valuation of their stocks. Which can show a smaller spread in the fundamental risk/reward ratio to 10 years US Bond Yields. To the US Yield Curve. Whether these shares are value stocks or growth stocks is an academic debate that I would like to leave to the academics among us. As a hands-on trader and also an investor, I rank both shares (Apple and or Mircosft) as Big Blue Value Growth. And, with all modesty, do notassume that you will be one of the big losers in the long term. And that as a conservative freedom loving long-term investor!

Short-term chart technical battered
So be consistent and realize any accumulated losses. Because the technical picture no longer looks bullish at prices below USD 150 in the long term view. Rather bearish in the medium term (under 150 USD). So that it is still possible to get over 150 USD long back again…