2022/02/23 (008) Technical Analysis – NDX

NASDAQ 100 under pressure, as excepted!
Fear of war pushes prices faster and sharper,
so that Commodities rises on the the other hand…



In an interest rate environment where we financial market participants can assume that the US Central Bank, the FED (Federal Reserve Bank) will (finally) tighten cheap money, in the long term, again, it will be relatively difficult for the NASDAQ. Because not all technology giants show above-average growth and or are so-called value companies. T4at`s why a more expensive US yield curve is a real alternative for large investors. Which could put pressure on the overall technology market – especially the NSADAQ 100! And that’s exactly what this trading capability is all about.

We find ourselves in a bear market after a lower prices of at least 20% – according to the classic definition. Lower prices of more than 10% means a correctionFear of a military conflict in Ukraine and its consequences pushed the US stock exchanges to multi-month lows on Wednesday. An early recovery was quickly ended, in late trading the Dow Jones Industrial fell to just under 33,085 points to its lowest level since April 2021. The leading index then crossed the finish line 1.38 percent lower at 33,131.76 points. The round mark of 33,000 points is gradually being targeted.

Cyber attacks against Ukraine and a report by the US magazine “Newsweek” according to which the US is warning of a military attack by Russia on Ukraine in the next 48 hours drove investors to flee. Added to this is the concern about rapidly rising commodity prices, which could have what it takes to further intensify the inflationary headwinds that have been high for some time.

This background also drove investors to flee the broad stock market. The broad S&P 500 lost 1.84 percent to 4225.50 points down 1.84 percent. It also fell to its lowest level since June 2021, as did the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, which ended up losing 2.60 percent to 13,509.43 points

US Stocks sink, today – Dow Jones 30 ends at 11-Month Low
Wall Street went into a tailspin on Wednesday, with investors nervous about the Ukraine crisis and the consequences of Western sanctions against Russia on growth and inflation. After an initial round of sanctions on Moscow, US President Biden announced new penalties hitting the builder of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. US intelligence warned Ukraine of full-scale Russian invasion within 48 hours while several countries including the EU, the UK, Canada, Australia and Japan also imposed restrictions on Russian companies, individuals and financial markets. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s parliament approved a declaration of a state of emergency in the entire country and told its citizens in Russia to immediately come home, while Moscow began evacuating its Kyiv embassy. Dow Jones lost more than 460 points to close at its lowest level in about 11 months; the S&P 500 declined 1.8%, extending losses for the 4th day and falling deeper into correction territory; and the heavyweight Nasdaq shed 2.6%.

US Treasury Yields Rebound from Three-Week Low
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose to around 1.976%, rebounding from an almost three-week low of 1.846% hit in the prior session. After a recent rally, bond markets took a breather as investors weighed the impact of retaliatory western sanctions against Russia amid escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine. Aside from Ukraine headlines, the latest FOMC showed the central bank would not raise interest rates yet but strongly indicated a hike is on the way as soon as March, while it will start unwinding its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet.

The Nasdaq 100 Index fell into a bear market for the first time
since the pandemic as investors exit risk assets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The technology-heavy index shed as much as 3.3% by 9:31 a.m. in New York, pushing it into bear-market territory, which is measured as a decline of 20% or more for a stock index from a recent high.

Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin ordered an operation to demilitarize the country. The invasion is the latest risk to hit markets, following growing expectations for a rise in interest rates and persistent inflation, factors that have largely hit high-growth names.

“We’re not at a point where you can just jump in because everything is so cheap; it is extremely hard to call a bottom, and the geopolitical risk makes it even harder,” said Ivana Delevska, chief investment officer of SPEAR Invest.

The Nasdaq 100 has dropped 21% since notching its Nov. 19 closing record amid skyrocketing inflation, disappointing earnings and the prospect of conflict. Companies on the index have lost about $3.1 trillion in market capitalization so far this year as investors grapple with a double whammy for the sector in rising interest rates, which chip away at the value of future earnings, and slowing growth. Yields have soared on the prospect that the Federal Reserve will start withdraw.

Amazing swings
sharper and faster, as i could imagine
Big Tech has experienced the wildest volatility swings in recent weeks since the pandemic shuttered the U.S. economy in 2020. At one point this month, Facebook parent Meta Platforms posted the worst one-day drop in market value in stock-market history while Amazon.com posted the biggest single-day gain in market capitalization in U.S. History.

Shares of smaller, fast-growing tech companies have been especially hurt by concerns that they would be more vulnerable to tighter monetary policy since they are more reliant on capital markets for financing rather than incredible riches that have helped some founders skyrocket to the moon.

U.S. tech companies may face further pain as investors swap growth stocks for energy, financials and other cyclical shares that historically have benefited from improving economic growth and higher rates.

The shifts likely represent a rebalancing away from the atypical conditions that have persisted for more than a decade and helped create a cadre of trillion-dollar companies dominating stock indexes.

It was a amazing drama
on the stock markets worldwide today
USDRUB at a record low and or massive sales also on our german DAX40 main index.

After Russia’s attack on Ukraine, investors dumped a number of positions on the market, causing blood red signs. After Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke of a “demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine”, hopes of a quick end to the conflict are dwindling. The RTS index collapsed by a fifth to 966 points shortly after trading started on Thursday. Within six trading days, the losses add up to more than a third. The dollar gained 10 percent against the ruble, sending the Russian currency to an all-time low. And our german DAX40 threatens to fall to a new 12-month low in tomorrows trading session also…

Enough facts from todays trading sessions, all around the world – it can only get better tomorrow! Or?