2022/02/13 (001) Technical Analysis – AAPL

„APPLE profitable even in times of crisis – regardless of inflation, let alone wars! Maybe an alternative to US 10Y Yields also?“

In an uptrend since June 2021
Since the summer of 2021, at more or less USD 120, the Apple share has been in an upward trend. In September 2021, Apple stock traded at an interim high of around USD 155 before falling below USD 135 (October 2021). Then climb up to $180 at the beginning of the year.

Pressure on the Apple share is not spared either
Crucial in this context is the fact that the share was traded again at more or less USD 155 at the end of January, in the wake of the overall market. If you will, Apple stock (since December 2021) is trading on the upside of $155 by the bulls. Compared to the bears that didn’t make you more expensive in September, October & November 2021.

Still a medium term uptrend above USD 155
Only if the Apple share were to trade below USD 140 again would I change my long-term positive view of this share. Because if the price mark of USD 140 does not hold, all medium-term bulls, including myself, would also be under price pressure. Just in the minus. And that could then entail further selling pressure of up to USD 120 and more.

Mid-term support zone between USD 140 and USD 150
Apple stock had an average price of more or less USD 148 in the months of July, August, September, October and November last year 2021. Which is why, in the course of the selling pressure on the technology markets, including Apple shares, the share can fall to as much as USD 150, even USD 148, if not even further. I personally don’t think so. Don’t think it’s realistic. But I don’t want to and can’t

Apple as a long-term investment over 150 USD
Personally, I also hold a few small long CFD positions on Apple stock. Because what I write always agrees with what I think. Although of course I don’t always say everything I think, let alone write (what i am thinking about it). The point about Apple stock is this. I assume that 2022 will be a so-called adjustment year, if you will, as far as the US stock markets are concerned, especially the US Technology Exchange – the Nasdaq!
What do I mean?

Inflation will not come down so quickly over the course of the year. If at all next year. And I don’t even expect normal inflation, between 2 and 3 percent, until 2024! If any? Which is why the FED will be forced to raise interest rates. I call this process QT (quantitative tightening) – interest rates at least as high as the inflation rate. On the one hand, this means that US bond yields will rise. And on the other hand, shares naturally come under pressure. In particular, technology stocks, from Silicon Valley. Since, as a financial market participant, you get security securities, such as US government bonds, with higher interest rates. And with a lower risk of default – compared to stocks, which can fall into the abyss. But there are also differences among technology stocks: Microsoft and or Apple i.e.

Who uses less Windows?
During a 1.2 year period due to high inflation, lower economic growth. Let alone sell his iPhone, iPad? And or consume less Apple services? Correct! And that’s exactly why I’m basically positive about USD 270 USD in Microsoft share and or 150 USD in Apple share And expect Apple stock to find its way back above $200 as well! If not this year – based on the future scenario just briefly outlined – then in 2023! And Micrsoft on the way back to 400 USD also …

Conservative free long-term investment
If we assume that the Federal Reserve Bank will raise interest rates to up to 2 percent by the end of the year. And the US government bonds are traded again at over 2 percent in the long term. Our preference is given to qualitative profitable companies – concret with a historically average valuation of their stocks. Which can show a smaller spread in the fundamental risk/reward ratio to 10 years US Bond Yields. To the US Yield Curve. Whether these shares are value stocks or growth stocks is an academic debate that I would like to leave to the academics among us. As a hands-on trader and also an investor, I rank both shares (Apple and or Mircosft) as Big Blue Value Growth. And, with all modesty, do not assume that you will be one of the big losers in the long term. And that as a conservative liberal long-term investor!

If you want to speculate?
Keep your hands hands off Apple and Microsoft and deal with Twitter and/or NVDIA, for example!
Both stocks show historically higher volatility. Are not (yet) cash machines! Who knows if you ever will? But precisely because of this, they can climb to the top much faster (as Apple and or Microsoft). Let alone fall down sharper down (as Apple and or Microsoft). Just like Bitcoin! But that`s an another topic – and leads too far at this point…

Entry is the opening price in Monday trading
If we assume an entry price of $169, a stop price of $150, and a target price of $230, we have a risk/reward ratio of 1.36 ($230/$169). Fundamentally no breathtaking trading capability. Granted! There are certainly more exciting and thrilling ones. But for the first Edition of my Devise 2 Day I wanted to formulate not only a 100% informative one. Much more a technical analysis and or trading capabiliy with 100% best of my knowledge and beliefs. And not only 100% commercial – but also! So that creates trust in my person. So that you can be sure that I think the same about what I write (financial market price action)…

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